Pac-12 Football: Predictions Against the Spread (ATS) ~ Week 1

HOLY SHIT! What the hell just happened.  The last thing I remember,I was getting ready to post a Pac-12 Football Daily Breakfast links in late June.  My eyes blinked, I glanced to my phone and it read the last day of August...

That should be good enough to explain my absence the last month and a half. 

For those people that have been reaching my page, I apologize for the the lack of content. . However, with football season just around the corner, why not get this puppy back up and running.

Surprise, surprise, the first article that pops into my head relates to gambling. Unless you are one of those few special folk who read articles first and then headlines, you should see where this one is headed. 

The true reason I started The Pacific Dozen was for making picks and doing Power Rankings. Besides the occasional recruiting/opinion article, don't expect too much. 

Let's get started with Week #1. 

Thursday's Games: (Picks are in Bold)

Utah (-28) vs. Montana State

Utah is not messing around this season.   They want to quickly prove to the Pac-12 that they are capable of hanging with the big boys and devouring this stepping stone will be a huge step in that direction.  With USC on the schedule next week, they are going to need as much of an ego-boost as they can possibly get from this cupcake.  

Arizona State (-35.5) vs. UC Davis

It still pisses me off that UC Davis has a football team and UC Santa Barbara doesn't.  Just because of that, I want to see the Aggies drown during any gridiron adventure.  The Sun Devil's posses an extremely explosive offense.  As long as their defense doesn't completely collapse, ASU should win this one by 50.

Saturday's Games:

No. 25 USC (-22) vs. Minnesota

There is so much to like about USC's offense, that it completely overshadows the concerns that the Trojans have on defense...well, at least for this week's matchup. Minnesota is definitely improving, but they should struggle to stay afloat in this first game.  

UCLA @ Houston (-3)

UCLA found a way to beat the Longhorns in Texas last year, it seems like the Bruins should be able to do the same against a "lower tier" team.  Don't underestimate the Cougars, though.  A healthy Case Keenum could be the difference for Houston.  

Oregon St. (-27.5) vs. Sacramento St.

The Stinging Hornets really have no chance in this one.  Oregon State might be experiencing a slight downturn this season, but this won't stop them from winning this game by at least four touchdowns.  

No. 7 Stanford (-30) vs. San Jose St. 

For some reason, this game is actually considered a pretty deep rivalry.  San Jose State's football program is the epitome of the term "rebuilding year" and they be the equivalent of Bambi starring down a Mack Truck this weekend.  

Washington St. (-28) vs. Idaho St.

The Cougars need a lot of work.  Lucky for them, so does Idaho State.  Washington State is primed for a turn around and if Paul Wulff is going to steer this ship in that direction it is going to be this year.  

California (-10) vs. Fresno St.

This game opened up in Vegas with Cal as 4.5-point favorites.  Since then, it has exploded to a 10-point spread for the Bears.  The odds makers saw something in the Bulldogs when they originally wrote the line.  Let's see if they were right.  

Washington (-18.5) vs. E. Washington

I don't know much about Eastern Washington, but for some reason this line seems like a slap in the faces of the Huskies.  Sark and his boys win this one by at least three touchdowns...guaranteed.  

No. 3 Oregon (-4) vs. No. 4 LSU

Since this line opened, LSU went from 3-point favorites to 4-point "dawgs."  Four points seems like awfully a lot for this marquee matchup.  Whichever team eventually wins, its only going to be by a field goal.  

Arizona (-27.5) vs. Northern Arizona

Vegas bookies are seriously underestimating the dangers of Arizona's offense. The Wildcats' defense should be able to handle Northern Arizona's sub-par offesne, and Nic Foles and company will ignite the scoreboard in this home opener laugher. 

Colorado vs. Hawaii (-7)

"Only gambling degenerates bet on the Hawaii game." ~ The Dilemma  So true, mainly because it's the last game of the day where you can either break even, jump ahead, or the more likely case, dig yourself a deeper hole.  Making the trip to Hawaii is never easy, even for the best teams.  The Buffaloes should get trampled.  

   

Pac-12 Breakfast Links: 06.22.2011

*Only four BCS schools have never been dinged for a major NCAA violation, Stanford being one of them.  In this day in age, that seems almost amazing.  [Wall Street Journal]

*Show me the Money! After Washington, Colorado was the second most profitable program in the Pac-12. Way to let the newbie show up the conference.  [The Ralphie Report]

*Speaking of that overused line from Jerry Maguire, there is a trail of red paint leading to the hands of those that run the Oregon program.  Like an AA member falling off the wagon, the NCAA has lost complete control. [Business Insider]

*Oregon State Head Coach Mike Riley is upbeat about a Beavers turnaround this season.  Take a picture because this might be the last time we see the coach so positive. [Mail Tribune]

*Andrew Luck is finally getting some 1st team All-American love. What took so long? [Lindy Sports]

*In case you miss the Pac-10, here is great stat rundown of how the 33 years played out.  It is kinda sad that Cal was the only team during that period not to make a BCS bowl.  [Tucson Citzen]

California Football: Leaning Heavily on the Legs of Zach Maynard

Although the ship isn’t necessarily sinking out in Berkeley, fans aboard the S.S. Golden Bear have reasons to fear the outcome of their current journey. Last season, Cal suffered its first sub-.500 record in nine years and uncertainty on both sides of the ball raises some warranted off-season concerns. 

Earlier this spring, Head Coach Jeff Tedford tried to put some of these worries to rest by announcing that Buffalo transfer Zach Maynard would be the Bears’ opening day starter at quarterback. 

For years, Cal’s string of highly touted quarterbacks and running backs were the crux that held their fans’ heads high.  However, this season, the amount of productivity that the Bears will get from the otherwise unknown Maynard and their untested backfield is highly questionable.

Pac-12 Breakfast Links: 06.20.2011

*Los Angeles is once again trying to put together a new downtown stadium that would host an NFL team and possibly Pac-12 Football events.  LA can’t sustain an NFL team.  Haven’t they learned this yet? [LA Times]

*Speaking of Southern California, LA Coliseum tells USC they can’t afford $60 million in renovations.  Since an NFL team is doom to die in LA, hopefully their other pro team can get at least get a new stadium. [LA Times]

*Now that Oregon has hit the map of NCAA violations, things are getting quite ridiculous in this corrupt organization.  My guess is at least three more programs will be revealed as violators before the offseason is through. [State Journal]

*USC is finally realizing that Pete Carroll has moved on.  He has moved on and so should you. [Conquest Chronicles]

*If the former Pac-10 members thought they were underexposed, imagine how Utah felt all those years.  [Salt Lake Tribune]

*Can UCLA pass the “Eye Test”?  Early prognosis says their fans might need glasses. [Bruins Nation]

*Mega-expansion was the rave all last summer.  I personally thought it would have been awesome. Could there still be a chance that the Pac-12 becomes the Pac-16? Probably not for a few years. [The Husky Haul]

Washington State Cougars Recruiting Round-Up

Recent Commits

·         No recent commits

Trending on the Trail 

Eduardo Middleton, OL, 6-5/280 (**): Playing at the “Pac-12 Level” is huge for Middleton; Wazzu is his only Pac-12 offer currently but Utah might offer soon. 

Jordan Pulu, MLB, 6-1/235 (**):  said if Wazzu offers, he will commit right away. 

Top Commits for 2012

·         Dalen Jones, WR, 6-0/180 (***): recruited as an ATH, Jones wants to and most likely will play WR; Cougars talked about playing him at CB, as well.

·         David Bucannon, S, 6-2/175 (***): a strong hitter that is capable of flying around the field

·         Austin Apodaca, QB, 6-3/185 (NR): won’t blind you with his speed, but he definitely can make plays with his feet; has the arm and intangibles to become a good pocket passer.

***Check out how the rest of the Pac-12 is doing on the recruiting trail here.  

Washington Huskies Recruiting Round-Up

Recent Commits

Dwayne Washington, WR, 6-1/195 (NR): familiarity with college football route running was a huge plus; also possess great speed.

Nathan Dean, OT, 6-5/270 (***): his work ethic, size, and athleticism drew many suitors; needs to add a little bulk.  

Damontae Kazee, CB, 5-11/170 (NR): good speed with excellent closing skills; also impressive on kickoff returns.

Malcolm Jackson, DL, 6-3/255 (NR): has the perfect frame to excel at the collegiate level;

 

Trending on the Trail

Blake Rodgers, ILB, 6-2/220 (NR):  the Huskies are apparently Rodgers favorite so far; he is expected to make a decision in a month. 

Darreus Rogers, WR, 6-2/194 (****): despite being a verbal commitment to USC, Rogers might not be 100% sold on Trojans. ASU and Washington are still in the mix

Top Commits for 2012

·         Jeff Lindquist, QB, 6-3/225 (****): posses superb field vision with keen pocket awareness; ball handling skills needs slight improvement.   

·         Tairen Owens, RB, 5-9/165 (***): was recruited for his explosiveness and breakaway speed; size could be an issue.  

·         Cyler Miles, QB, 6-2/220 (***): this was a small surprise considering the Huskies already have a four star commit for 2012; Miles definitely brings more speed to the position.


***Check out how the rest of the Pac-12 is doing on the recruiting trail here.  

Utah Utes Recruiting Round-Up

Recent Commits

Delshawn McClellon, WR, 5-9/165 (**): the speedy wide out could not turndown the opportunity to play for Norm Chow

Trending on the Trail

Polo Manukainiu, DE, 6-6/250 (NR): although getting a ton of hype across the nation, Manukainiu list Utah and Arizona in his top four.

Top Commits for 2012

·         Travis Wilson, QB, 6-6/210 (***): can pass a decent long and underneath ball, but struggles with anything in between; a solid frame brews his potential further.

·         Austin Lee, S, 6-0/185 (***): has excellent awareness and understands when to look for the ball; can also deliver a strong hit.

·         Kiha Sai, OT, 6-5/300 (***): enormous size allows Sai to succeed on the pass and run; flexibility and quickness off the ball still need work.  

·         Chase Hansen, ILB, 6-3/198 (***): an ATH that could really play any position, Utah’s interests in Hansen lie at linebacker; don’t be surprised to see him somewhere on offense as well.


***Check out how the rest of the Pac-12 is doing on the recruiting trail here.  

USC Trojans Recruiting Round-Up

Recent Commits

·         No recent commits

Trending on the Trail

Darreus Rogers, WR, 6-2/194 (****): despite being a verbal commitment to USC, Rogers might not be 100% sold on the Trojans;    ASU and Washington are still in the mix.

Christian Powell, DL, 5-11/250 (NR):  Powell displayed his skills at RB at the Trojans Skills Camp; interests on both sides are rising.

Top Commits for 2012

·         Arik Armstead, OT, 6-8/275 (*****): the No. 1 ranked OT recruit by Scout; his technique may need work, but he shines everywhere else.

·         Jordan Payton, WR, 6-2/205 (****): good (not great) speed but excellent hands; good at getting separation and is capable of making the big play. 

·         Jabari Ruffin, OLB, 6-3/230 (****): a two-way player that was recruited for his play on defense; speed and power within a decent sized frame.




***Check out how the rest of the Pac-12 is doing on the recruiting trail here.  

UCLA Bruins Recruiting Round-up

Recent Commits

·         No recent commits

Trending on the Trail

Lacy Westbrook, OL, 6-5/300 (****):  The Bruins are making a real push for Westbrook and it could be paying off. 

Brent Vanderveen, QB, 6-5/203 (***): UCLA is the latest to get in the mix for this sleeper recruit; a possible appearance at the Bruin’s camp later his month could tip his true intent. 

Top Commits for 2012

·         Psalm Wooching, FB/OLB, 6-3/205 (***): recruited mainly as an ATH; UCLA offered him to play at LB/FB. 

·         Steven Lakalaka, RB, 5-11/205(***): great versatility; targeted to come in as a power back


***Check out how the rest of the Pac-12 is doing on the recruiting trail here.  

Stanford Cardinal Recruiting Round-Up

Recent Commits

·         No recent commits

Trending on the Trail

Drew Madu, S, 6-1/196 (NR): heading out to the Farm on the 20 th; recruitment process is still really wide open

Top Commits for 2012

·         Noor Davis, OLB, 6-4/225 (****): a cerebral player that is fast, smart, and can deliver a hit; Davis’s commitment with Stanford is one of the biggest surprises this offseason. 

·         Alex Carter, S, 6-1/185 (***):  a bigger, more physical safety; can go both ways, but palys better on defense.

·         Jontrey Tillman, RB/WR, 2-9/165 (NR): speed and athleticism drew the Cardinal to Tillman, now they have him.


***Check out how the rest of the Pac-12 is doing on the recruiting trail here.  

Oregon State Beavers Recruiting Round-Up

Recent Commits

Malik Gilmore, WR, 6-3/195 (****): he runs effortless with decent speed; size and arm length also allows him to catch practically every ball.

Trending on the Trail

Khalil Pettway, ILB, 6-4/205 (**):  a new offer from West Virginia tempts Pettway to head out East; he is still hesitant to name any true favorites though.

Top Commits for 2012

·         Dustin Stanton, TE, 6-6/212 (***): a lanky frame may force Dustin to play WR; Beavers are also interesting in using him as an “H” back.

·         Cleveland Wallace, CB, 6-1/170 (***): weight being his biggest issue, Wallace’s awareness in coverage, backpedal quickness, and speed in general provides him with decent potential.  




***Check out how the rest of the Pac-12 is doing on the recruiting trail here.  

Oregon Ducks Recruiting Round-Up

Recent Commits

Alex Balducci, DE, 6-3/245 (***): No.2 recruit in Oregon decides to stay at home; an aggressive player that should fit the Ducks’ system well.

Cody Carriger, DE, 6-7/230 (***): his high motor and toughness makes him a handful on both sides of the ball; a tall drink water, Carriger will be an excellent target if he decides to play TE.

Trending on the Trail

UP – Byron Marshall, RB, 5-10/195 (****): with an offer firmly in hand, the Ducks rise to the top of his list.

Top Commits for 2012

·         Evan Baylis, TE, 6-5/220 (****): a huge threat in the passing game, but strength and blocking abilities still need work.

·         Jake Rodrigues, QB, 6-3/215 (***): a dual-threat QB that impressed several schools this spring with his speed and arm throwing skills

·         Eric Amoako, S, 5-11/195 (***): His twin brother Stephen also committed to Oregon; both are ball hawks in the making.  


***Check out how the rest of the Pac-12 is doing on the recruiting trail here.